Jobs Outlook June 2025

• The US economy added another 139,000 jobs in May, as it continues to prove its resiliency in the face of policy uncertainty. However, the gains came with additional downward revisions to previous months’ data, bringing year-to-date average job growth down considerably.

• While hiring has only slowed, not plummeted, the immediate future of the labor market remains highly uncertain. A sharp slowdown in hiring and job availability means there is a limited buffer should we see an uptick in layoffs, meaning any economic downturn could be accompanied by a relatively sharp uptick in unemployment.

• Looking specifically at Public Services, we can see a sharp decline in labor demand across sub-industries as employers adjust to new policy priorities emanating from Washington. Job postings in Humanitarian and Social Welfare Services have fallen 81%, while postings in Diplomacy and Development have fallen 67%.
  
  

The US economy proved its resiliency once again in May, adding another 139,000 jobs. Everywhere you look you see news about the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty on the economy, except for the headline figure in the monthly BLS jobs report. An uptick in unemployment claims and weak ADP payroll numbers this week had brought additional focus on this month’s report. Today's jobs report, in the end, delivered another solid jobs gain - helping to reassure markets that any looming economic downturn is not yet upon us.

Hiring has undoubtedly slowed, but it has not stopped, as employers gauge how much shifting economic policies will impact them directly. Job gains have continued at a decent pace but have notably been concentrated in a few industries, with this month's gains being driven in large part by Education & Health and Leisure & Hospitality.

Looking ahead, the data does not look great. Labor demand—as revealed through Revelio Labs' job postings data—continues to drop off. Total active postings declined 5.1% month-over-month in May, and compared to a year ago, job postings are now 16.9% lower across the United States as a whole. Compared to the hot labor market of January 2022, postings are now a full 40% lower.

Declines in active postings were widely distributed across the labor market in May, with every industry showing a decrease compared to the previous month. The transportation and information sectors saw the sharpest declines, with job postings falling 13.2% and 12.5% month-over-month, respectively. Compared to a year ago, Management & Admin Services and Government have experienced the sharpest declines in labor demand, with postings falling 33.5% and 31.8%.

Cuts across the federal government - which shed another 22,000 jobs in May - have been well documented, and it is no surprise that job postings are way down. But casting the net a little wider and looking at the entirety of public services, we can see the impact that shifting policy priorities are having in demand for workers across these fields.

Over the past year, job postings for positions in Humanitarian and Social Welfare Services industry have fallen a whopping 80.8%, and postings in Development and Diplomacy are down 66.9%.

While the most dire of economic forecasts surrounding tariffs and economic policy shifts in Washington have yet to play out, uncertainty is still likely to take its toll on the labor market. A willingness to pull back on the most aggressive tariff policies by the Trump administration has put financial markets relatively at ease, but many employers and investors facing long-term investment decisions are still likely on pause. We see this reflected in the broad decline in job postings. In addition, shifting policy priorities are reshaping certain industries - especially in public services - where entire industries like Development and Diplomacy are being reshaped.